Trump-proofing NATO in the face of Russia’s nukes
If Trump bails on NATO, Europe’s current nuclear deterrents likely insufficient to face biggest threats since WWII
Although a second Trump presidency is not a foregone conclusion, NATO members are gearing up to Trump-proof the organization and are reviewing their defense strategies.
NATO’s concerns about Trump’s possible re-election were heightened by his flippant comment in February that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever it wanted” if certain countries didn’t pay up, defying NATO’s principle that an attack on one constituted an attack on all.
Trump’s comments represent a seismic departure for US foreign policy. No US president previously has made this type of threat about the country’s commitment to NATO, and this has forced Europe to prepare to deal with Russian aggression without US support.
Ahead of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington DC in July, this has become so concerning that one of the major parties in the European parliament, the European People’s Party, has called on Europe to build its own nuclear umbrella without the US.
Of course, this is all coming to a head at a time when the West is facing the biggest threat to its security since World War II, making the discussions about NATO’s nuclear shield more salient.
Although Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in this conflict in Ukraine, some experts warn that it would be foolhardy to assume that NATO’s current nuclear deterrence is sufficient.
Putin has made clear that Russia is prepared and willing to use nuclear weapons, if necessary. Putin may believe that a limited use of nuclear weapons would not escalate the war enough to involve the US, making it more likely that Russia could dip into its nuclear arsenal in its next conflict to gain a huge advantage (or possibly do so at a later stage in the current one).
