
Trump’s Russia sanctions might be what finally works
With a “maximum pressure” campaign, Trump may be the one to land the final financial blow that forces Putin to the negotiating table
Just one week into his presidency, U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at his approach to U.S. sanctions on Russia. On Truth Social last week, he called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to “settle now and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE,” adding, “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.” This not-so-subtle threat targets not only the Kremlin but also nations still doing business with Russia.
Writing in these pages in November, I noted two points. First, Trump is no stranger to using sanctions and other coercive economic tools. During his first term, Trump leveraged sanctions expansively against Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. Second, Trump loves making deals, and in doing so, he needs to win, avoid appearing weak, and, if possible, generate profit for the American people.
Trump’s Truth Social post was thus predictable, but it raises several questions, chief among them: “What sort of deal?” and “What kind of sanctions?
The answer to the second question is somewhat easier to predict than the first. After three years of escalating sanctions, trade, and financial restrictions on Russia, Ukraine’s allies have undoubtedly had an effect. But the slow and laborious pace at which sanctions have been revealed has allowed Russia to adapt and minimize disruption.
Many point to the parlous state of the Russian economy, its high inflation rate, and economic slowdown. This is true, and indeed, 2025 looks set to be the toughest year for the Russian economy since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion. But will it be tough enough to force Putin to rethink if sufficient revenue — particularly from the sale of oil — continues to flow in? And herein lies the possible foundation of “a deal.”
The Achilles’ heel of international sanctions is Russia’s ability to sell oil. Despite sanctions, many buyers still purchase Russian energy, providing the Kremlin with vital revenue to finance its war. With few exceptions, such as immobilizing Russian Central Bank assets, Western policymakers have moved cautiously with sanctions, particularly where they fear their decisions might roil commodity or energy markets.
This restrained approach resembles the first part of the Monty Python fish-slapping dance: irritating the Kremlin but not delivering the decisive blow. Trump, however, seems eager to take on the second part: delivering the financial punch he believes will force Putin to strike a deal.
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