February 13, 2025
It could well be that Smith’s UCP government is spoiling for one last big fight with Trudeau before he exits stage left. Trudeau has become so politically toxic in Alberta that standing up to him has become an intrinsic part of Smith’s agenda and political brand. His departure will be quite seismic in Alberta politics and that cannot be overlooked in this context.

Smith right to be angry at Trudeau’s willingness to sacrifice Alberta

The prime minister would never be open to singling Quebec or Ontario industries

As hawkish as Danielle Smith is perceived to be on these matters, it’s hard to imagine any Alberta premier even considering signing on to a potentially devastating export tax on the oil and gas industry — one imposed by Justin Trudeau, no less.

For that matter, it’s very difficult to imagine another premier of any other province agree to measures that would single out and disproportionately harm their main industry. Not that anyone could envision the Trudeau government singling out any other industry in any other province, especially Ontario and Quebec.

With the federal government still reportedly entertaining the idea of an export tax on oil and gas — or even blocking such energy shipments to the U.S. altogether — it should come as no surprise that Ottawa didn’t get the complete show of unity it was hoping for at Wednesday’s first ministers’ meeting.

Frankly, it’s a meeting that should have happened well before this week, where we are now just days away from Donald Trump once again being sworn in as U.S. president. Alberta’s not the only province frustrated by a lack of federal leadership on this file, given the lost weeks between Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet and Trudeau’s own resignation announcement, where the prime minister was essentially AWOL.

Still, at this point, we don’t know for sure what Trump is going to do. We don’t know if he’s going to follow through on his threat to impose a massive tariff on Canadian exports, and, if so, just how all-encompassing that would be.

Hopefully, the Trudeau government will be cautious about any sort of response. For one thing, it’s not clear how much mandate and moral authority this lame duck and deeply unpopular prime minister has when it comes to leading the charge. We missed the opportunity for an election of our own that could have provided some necessary clarity and authority.

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