June 14, 2024
Voters are opting for change at a rapid clip — and that's bad news for Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (second from left) is flanked by former premiers Kathleen Wynne (left to right), Philippe Couillard, Brian Gallant and Wade MacLauchlan in 2017. All four premiers have been defeated in elections in the past year.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (second from left) is flanked by former premiers Kathleen Wynne (left to right), Philippe Couillard, Brian Gallant and Wade MacLauchlan in 2017. All four premiers have been defeated in elections in the past year.

Not since the Great Depression disrupted sitting governments across the country has any prime minister presided over a period of such sweeping political turnover as Justin Trudeau has ahead of October’s federal election.

Another government could be added to the tally if Dwight Ball’s Liberals fail to secure re-election in today’s vote in Newfoundland and Labrador — a defeat that would make Trudeau’s term in office the bloodiest for an incumbent government in Canadian history.

Trudeau benefited from a widespread desire for change in the October 2015 election. Since then, there have been nine changes of government in the 11 provincial and territorial elections that have been held during the last four years. (Nunavut and the Northwest Territories do not run elections along party lines, and so have been excluded from this analysis.)

Newfoundland and Labrador was the first out of the gate in November 2015, when Ball’s Liberals defeated the incumbent Progressive Conservatives. In 2016, Brian Pallister’s PCs beat the NDP in Manitoba and Sandy Silver’s Liberals defeated the Yukon Party.

In 2017, Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals won the most seats but were replaced by John Horgan’s New Democrats with the backing of the B.C. Greens. Last year, Liberal governments in Ontario, New Brunswick and Quebec were replaced by the PCs and François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec.

Already this year, Rachel Notley’s New Democrats fell to Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives in Alberta, while Wade MacLauchlan’s Liberals were defeated by the PCs under Dennis King in Prince Edward Island.

Only the Saskatchewan Party in 2016 and Stephen McNeil’s Nova Scotia Liberals in 2017 have managed to win re-election over the last four years.

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See Also:

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(3) Panda sinks claws deep into Canada: author

(4) Liberals block opposition bid to bring Mark Norman before committee to testify

(5) Canada introducing digital charter to combat hate speech, misinformation

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