Not since the Great Depression disrupted sitting governments across the country has any prime minister presided over a period of such sweeping political turnover as Justin Trudeau has ahead of October’s federal
Another government could be added to the tally if Dwight Ball’s Liberals fail to secure re-election in today’s vote in Newfoundland and Labrador — a defeat that would make Trudeau’s term in office the bloodiest for an incumbent government in Canadian history.
Trudeau benefited from a widespread desire for change in the October 2015 election. Since then, there have been nine changes of government in the 11 provincial and territorial elections that have been held during the last four years. (Nunavut and the Northwest Territories do not run elections along party lines, and so have been excluded from this analysis.)
Newfoundland and Labrador was the first out of the gate in November 2015, when Ball’s Liberals defeated the incumbent Progressive Conservatives. In 2016, Brian Pallister’s PCs beat the NDP in Manitoba and Sandy Silver’s Liberals defeated the Yukon Party.
In 2017, Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals won the most seats but were replaced by John Horgan’s New Democrats with the backing of the B.C. Greens. Last year, Liberal governments in Ontario, New Brunswick
Already this year, Rachel Notley’s New Democrats fell to Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives in Alberta, while Wade MacLauchlan’s Liberals were defeated by the PCs under Dennis King in Prince Edward Island.
Only the Saskatchewan Party in 2016 and Stephen McNeil’s Nova Scotia Liberals in 2017 have managed to win re-election over the last four years.
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