Russia’s Existential Threat is China, Not America
If Russia wants to remain an intact nation, they are going to need to align themselves with the West. That may not be their ideal choice, but it is the only one they’ve got.
Casualties in the Ukraine war now exceed 500,000, with recent escalation threatening a much wider conflict. But assuming this war does not spin out of control in the next several weeks, incoming president Trump has one argument for a negotiated peace that the Russians may find irresistible. The long-term threat to Russian sovereignty is not NATO but China. Putin recognized this early in his presidency when he considered joining NATO. What a difference a few decades make. Now, there is nothing the Chinese would rather see than a horrific, all-out war between NATO and Russia, and they might just get their wish.
China is supplying critical components and dual-use technologies, including machine tools and microelectronics, that help sustain Russia’s weapons industry. China and Russia have held joint military exercises designed to develop cooperation between their militaries. But while China is supporting Russia today, China’s past and likely future with Russia tell a very different story.
During what the Chinese refer to as their “century of humiliation,” the period from 1838 through 1949, imperial powers sliced off and took control of large portions of territory that the Chinese believe historically belong to them. While much of that is debatable—Tibet and the South China Sea come immediately to mind—that doesn’t change the fact of their resolve to take all of it back. The extent of Russian territory that China could theoretically lay claim to is vast.
In 1860, the Russian Empire seized northern Manchuria, including what is now the city of Vladivostok. In 1921, Russian forces expelled a Chinese army that was attempting to recover Outer Mongolia, which had declared independence from China ten years earlier. During the 1800s, the Russians extended their empire throughout much of Central Asia, including territory that the Chinese had controlled in previous centuries. A map of China’s hypothetical claims to what is either part of Russia or within Russia’s sphere of influence today would, if realized, increase the territory of the Chinese nation by over two million square miles.
It isn’t merely redress for perceived historical injustice, however, that motivates China to have an appetite for Russian territory. It’s also economic necessity. Imagine China’s predicament in a serious conflict with the United States. Merely playing defense, the U.S. Navy could deny China access to food from South America, oil from the Middle East, minerals from Australia, and fish from the open ocean. China’s need for Russia’s vast mineral and agricultural resources would become existential.
See Also:
Russian Central Bank Halts Currency Buying Until 2025 as Ruble Slides
Russia’s Mighty T-90 Tank: Not Exactly as World-Beating as Putin Wants
Biden Secretly Requests $24 Billion for Ukraine Aid
Trump nominates retired General Keith Kellogg for Ukraine peace envoy
Ukraine approves homemade Oncilla-Shturm armored personnel carrier for military use
Watch:
