January 19, 2025
A Storm is Coming on the Chiltern Hills
Whoever is the next Tory leader will have the formidable task of raising his party from the dead.
Whoever is the next Tory leader will have the formidable task of raising his party from the dead.

Prince, Prince-Elective on the modern plan,
Fulfilling such a lot of People’s Wills,
You take the Chiltern Hundreds while you can—
A storm is coming on the Chiltern Hills.
                                    
G.K. Chesterton

When a Member of Parliament in Britain decides to retire, he applies for the stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds, which as an office of profit under the Crown is incompatible with representing the people and requires his departure from the House of Commons. The other way of leaving the Commons is to lose a seat at an election. By and large MPs prefer to leave voluntarily. Many of them must now be thinking that a sinecure in the Chilterns is better than a principality in Utopia.  

For in the short time since Theresa May postponed Britain’s departure from the European Union from the long-promised date of March 29 to October 31—which itself may be postponed yet again—the log-jam that has been UK politics for the last few years began to crack and break ominously. That observation does not apply, however, to the parliamentary gridlock on Brexit, which is still as frozen as ever.

The story so far: Two-thirds of MPs from various parties want to weaken or reverse Brexit without openly voting to do so. Two-thirds of the governing Tory parliamentary party, on the other hand, want to implement Brexit at all costs, if necessary without an EU-UK deal beforehand but under World Trade Organisation rules instead. May’s Withdrawal Agreement deal—which is an attempt to pass a Brexit that’s hard to distinguish from Remain except that it looks worse than Remain—has so far been presented to the Commons three times and defeated three times by substantial majorities. She is now trying to negotiate a still weaker Brexit with Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn in the hope of passing it against the opposition of most Tory MPs and apparently half her cabinet. There are other complications too, but the broad picture is that May seems unlikely to get either a deal with Labour or enough Tory support to pass her Brexit Lite into law, but that no other coalition of MPs looks able to get any other form of Brexit-and-water through either. Now read on.

I think I may have written that last paragraph, with only minor variations, several times in the last year. You may feel you know it by heart. But be of good cheer. I just heard the sound of a bugle; the US Fifth Cavalry is coming through the pass.

[…]

See Also:

(1) Mrs May’s Pantomime Horse Canters Back to Brussels

(2) Brexit Party formed in Welsh Assembly ‘with IMMEDIATE effect’ – Tory and Ukip members QUIT

(3) Farage: Vote for Brexit Party Lets People ‘Put No Deal Back on the Table’

(4) Poll surge for Farage sparks panic among Tories and Labour

(5) PM could destroy party if she doesn’t quit, top Brexit campaigner warns

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