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What does Reform need to overtake the Tories? Fewer than 340k voters
Nigel Farage’s party may only have five MPs to its name but, for them, this is only the beginning
Nigel Farage’s plan to be prime minister in five years’ time may seem far-fetched, but it would take fewer than 340,000 voters to switch to Reform UK for the party to overtake the Tories and become the official opposition, a Telegraph analysis shows.
Reform’s return of just five MPs, including Mr Farage and party chairman Richard Tice, makes them a minnow in terms of seats, but the party received more than 4 million votes – the third highest of any party – and came second in 98 constituencies.
Where Labour averaged around 23,600 votes for every seat won, Reform averaged 820,745 votes per seat won.
The implication is obvious: Reform has a massive voter base which is currently too evenly spread, but if the party learned to organise itself it could convert those votes into large numbers of seats.
In order to overtake the Tories and with the 117 seats to become the second party in Parliament, Reform would have needed an extra 672,947 votes in the seats where they came closest to the winning party. Put another way, it would require 336,474 people to switch to Reform from the party that won those seats – just 0.7 per cent of the electorate.
Mr Tice says: “The number of seats where we came second is really significant, and we did that without even trying. Nigel is already talking about the next level of our growth, and the way he will professionalise the party.”
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