October 12, 2024
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The RN’s success has rocked French politics to its very core. Macronism is dead and a new era of uncertainty lays ahead.

Macron stares into the abyss as French election run-off nears

Projections point to the president’s coalition being crushed by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally

Before the Battle of Helm’s Deep in Lord of the Rings, King Théoden gives a memorable monologue as he dons his battle gear while the orcs approach, which he ends forebodingly by asking, “How did it come to this?” Staring out from the Élysée Palace following the results from Sunday’s parliamentary elections, Emmanuel Macron was no doubt asking himself the same question. Théoden, of course, went on to pull off a miraculous win over the forces of darkness. Macron and his Ensemble coalition (including the Renaissance party) will not enjoy the same comeback in Round 2 this coming Sunday; France’s imagined monarch and his party are staring into an unavoidable abyss of the president’s own making.

The first-round results were as clear as they were an unambiguous disaster for Macron. The hard-right Rassemblement National (National Rally or RN) and its Republican allies, led by Macron’s two-headed nemesis of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, have delivered a blow heard around Europe. The RN received just shy of 34 per cent of the vote and is leading or elected in 296 ridings. Macron’s coalition was a distant third with 20.7 per cent, and is elected or leading in only 65 ridings. It is a colossal fall from the 245 elected members Macron had when he rashly dissolved parliament following a battering in the European elections only three weeks ago.

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