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More baleful byelections are brewing for the Trudeau Liberals after the fall of St. Paul’s
These looming battlegrounds, most currently held by the Liberals, could either signal a turnaround for the party, or add to their growing sense of demise
OTTAWA – The Liberals’ stunning defeat in the Toronto—St-Paul’s byelection this week could be just the beginning of a year of pain for the party: several more byelections are expected; all of them could happen before 2024 is over.
The Liberals currently hold three of the four seats, with some previously considered safe for the party. But so was Toronto—St. Paul’s, which the party held onto comfortably for 30 years until this week.
It may be that there are no longer any secure seats for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party, which has been way behind the Conservatives in national polls for months. These are the looming battlegrounds that could either signal a turnaround for the Liberals, or add to their growing sense of demise.
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Previously: Liberal
Expected byelection: Before Sept. 17
Since 2015, ex-Liberal MP and former justice minister David Lametti has had the central Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in a chokehold.
Lametti and the Liberals have never won less than 42.9 per cent of the vote in the riding, which was created after an electoral redrawing in 2013. In the 2021 federal election, Lametti garnered over 20-per-cent more votes than the runner-up, Bloc Québécois candidate Raphaël Guérard.
Lametti resigned in January after being cut out of Trudeau’s cabinet. By law, Trudeau must announce a byelection date by July 30 and it then must take place five to seven weeks after the announcement.
