October 4, 2024
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The chatter now isn’t about whether Trudeau will quit, but when. The knives are out, and they are being sharpened both inside and outside the party. This isn’t just about one man: there are now dozens of Liberal MPs whose seats are at risk.

Does the Toronto—St Paul’s byelection presage the end of Justin Trudeau?

The PM has fallen out of favour with Canadians, but the Liberals have few other good choices

On Monday, voters participating in the Toronto—St Paul’s byelection delivered a clear message to the incumbent Liberal government: it’s time for change. They also unambiguously told Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that it’s time to pack it in.St Paul’s has been a Liberal stronghold for 30 years. The last time it was blue was under the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney and Kim Campbell, when Barbara McDougall served two terms as its MP from 1984 to 1993.

Since then, the Liberals have won the riding by 10,000 votes or more in all but two elections. Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett held it for over 25 years before retiring in January, winning the 2021 vote by 23 percentage points.

This time, Conservative candidate Don Stewart took it by less than 600 votes, in a nail-biter that had the Liberals leading until early Tuesday morning. The last polls were reported at 4:30 a.m. ET, giving the seat to Stewart with 42.1 per cent of the vote against Liberal candidate Leslie Church, who took 40.5 per cent. The NDP’s Amrit Parhar scored 10.9 per cent.

While many saw the contest as close, few predicted that the Tories would triumph. If their internal polls showed it, the Conservatives kept mum: even Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s key advisor, Jenni Byrne, said Monday night that she expected the Liberals to take it. This is the first urban Toronto seat the Tories have won since 2011.

To call Stewart a giant killer would thus be an understatement. But the giant he felled wasn’t just the riding: it may be the prime minister himself.

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