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The Last Few Months Show Ukraine Can Win the War – But Don’t Show That It Will
If armed properly, Ukraine can definitely win the war. Until now, however, there have been only enough arms to prevent the Russians from overwhelming Ukrainian defenses.
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Let’s look back on the Ocheretyne bulge exactly four months ago (Feb. 22, 2024). This was just after the Ukrainians had to pull out of Avdiivka, which had been the focus of Russian attacks since October/November 2023. At that time, the line was, at its greatest extent, probably 15-20 kilometers (10-13 miles) from where it is now. Here is a map from then which you can compare to the maps of the bulge from today which are in the previous section.
As you can see, four months ago the line was about five kilometers to the east of Ocheretyne, and now it is about 5 kilometers to the west. As Russian advances towards Chasiv Yar have actually been far less –what we are looking at above is the greatest areas of Russian advance since the summer of 2022.
More than anything else this kind of advance reveals a few things. First and foremost, it is extremely hard to make anything but infantry-led, tiny advances, in this war. Such small advances mirror what happened last summer during the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which saw the Ukrainians advance similar distances (maybe even a little less) over three months that summer.
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