June 13, 2024
Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah as Mid East powerhouses
No rival group has the slightest chance of prevailing over Nasrallah’s army.
No rival group has the slightest chance of prevailing over Nasrallah’s army.

The Hizballah “special forces” battling Lebanese protesters are bound to swap their sticks for live ammo as Lebanon plunges into regime breakup amid a crumbling economy. Saad Hariri’s resignation as prime minister on Tuesday, Oct. 29, did not of itself greatly impact the declining political situation in Beirut – not only because he was not a strong leader, but because the sustained protest across the country had already cast Lebanon into three major power groupings in which he had no place:
DEBKAfile outlines those groupings:

  1. The ruling caste led by President Michel Aoun and kin who are standing aloof from the turbulence on the streets.
  2. The protesters who have managed to sustain the momentum of their demonstrations into a third week, while also preserving their non-secular national unity of purpose – hitherto unheard of in divided Lebanon – in their fight to be rid of a corrupt ruling administration. This could throw the country into chaos or end in each group reverting to its ethnical-religious roots for civil war.
  3. Hizballah, which is watching its power bases in central government fall apart. While sending his “special forces” to break up the street demonstrations by force, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah made the fatal mistake, maybe out of panic, of lining up with the central government targeted by the protest movement. This gave credence to the demonstrators’ demand to remove Hizballah from any new national ruling administration resulting tomorrow from their struggle.

It may be taken for granted that Lebanon’s various religious and ethnic groups and factions have reacted to the burgeoning power of the street by busily topping up their stores of weapons, ready to set up the lines for defending their communities. The elements of civil war are therefore already being put in place.


See Also:

(1) Lebanese mass protests topple government


1 Comment
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
November 1, 2019 4:45 pm

What more appropriate time than now for a little trip back down memory lane. Back to 2006. When a similar crisis erupted in Lebanon….

At the time of the crisis, it was estimated that up to 40,000 to 50,000 Canadians were visiting or residing in Lebanon. Approximately 11,000 Canadians had registered with the embassy in Beirut prior to 12 July 2006; by 17 July, this number had increased to 22,000, peaking at 39,100 people at the height of the crisis. The Committee was informed that, by the end of the crisis, approximately 14,370 people had been evacuated by Canada voluntarily. Canadians were evacuated by sea transportation to holding centres in Cyprus and Turkey and from there by air to Canada. In total, there were 34 departures by ship from the port of Beirut and another from the port of Tyre. Evacuees were subsequently returned to Canada on 61 chartered flights, with an additional 4 flights on aircraft belonging to the Department of National Defence. It should be noted that despite the complexity and unprecedented scale of the Canadian evacuation effort, only approximately 35% of those people who had registered with the Canadian embassy at the peak of the crisis in fact needed and/or accepted the Government’s assistance in leaving Lebanon. The number of registered Canadians requiring and accepting Canada’s assistance in ensuring their safe passage from the crisis area could have been much higher.

What a surprise it must have been back then for our government to realize what a hot spot tourist destination Lebanon was for Canadians. Or a much desired retirement destination. But it wasn’t and it isn’t today. With very few exceptions these 10’s of 1000’s of ‘Canadians’ demanding free passage and safety back to Canada were former refugees who initially came here begging for asylum. They claimed that they could never safely return to their country. They were granted refugee status. Then in 3 insanely short years offered citizenship. So then what did they do? They flocked by the 10’s of 1000’s back whence they claimed they could never go. Until the shit hits the fan again. Like it is today. Gets the keys to the treasury ready in hand Justin. Warm up the aircraft. Lease the ships. If past behaviour is any guide then anticipate hordes of these ‘Canadians of Convenience’ to begin burning up the SOS hotline in the very near future.