July 19, 2024
Reasons to Bet for or against Brexit
At this point, it looks like a toss-up.
At this point, it looks like a toss-up.

Almost anything can happen in three years, except taking a nation out of the European Union. Even one with its own currency, a major financial capital, and one of the largest national economies in the world.

As the vote came in for Brexit in the summer of 2016, I expressed skepticism about the EU respecting a national plebiscite that goes against its long-term plan of a federal superstate Europe. They have more than I expected. I said that I didn’t think the United Kingdom’s political class would fight for a good deal. This turned out to be true. I also predicted that Nigel Farage would be finished by a Brexit. And he would have been. But Brexit hasn’t happened, so Farage is back.

I can’t say my predictions have been all that great. Ahead of the vote, I accepted the conventional wisdom and thought Remain would win somewhat comfortably. As events changed, so did my views. I thought the convert faith that Theresa May expressed made Brexit more likely. Then I thought that the snap election result in 2017 potentially doomed the whole project.

Now the United Kingdom sits within a constitutional crisis. Why? Mostly because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act of 2011, which was meant to keep the Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition together. It used to be that once the prime minister and his government couldn’t get their business through the House of Commons, an election would happen almost automatically. Now, because of the FTPA, a two-thirds majority is needed to call a snap election. And so a majority of Remain and anti–No Deal parliamentarians can keep Boris Johnson in as prime minister and vote against him. With the connivance of an unscrupulous speaker of the House, they can send plainly unconstitutional legislation through, attempting to marionette him. Journalists are making a great big deal that Johnson is the first prime minister ever to lose his first five votes in the Commons, as if this were his fault, and not the newly malfunctioning rules of Parliament itself. Johnson has tabled a motion for an election, but the opposition would rather imprison him as prime minister than run against him.

Why? Because he’s likely to beat them in an election.


See Also:

(1) End of UK? Northern Ireland voters narrowly choose to rejoin Ireland in knife-edge poll

(2) Andrew Neil and Nigel Farage in fiery clash over Scottish court ruling against prorogation

(3) Boris WINS! No deal legal challenge dismissed in Belfast court – huge boost

(4) ‘Not a question of law!’ Ex-Supreme Judge dismantles Miller’s Brexit court case argument

(5) ‘Corbyn’s plan is MAD!’ Brussels furious with Remain alliance as Brexit plunges into chaos