What factors usually reelect or throw out incumbent presidents?
The economy counts most.
Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment, and a sense of perceived stagnation — and were easily defeated.
The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for John McCain to continue eight years of Republican rule. Barack Obama campaigned on the message that incumbent George W. Bush was to blame for the meltdown and that McCain, his potential Republican successor, would be even worse.
A once-unpopular incumbent Ronald Reagan fought recession for three years. Yet he soared to a landslide victory in 1984 only after the gross domestic product suddenly took off at an annualized clip of over 7 percent prior to the election.
President Donald Trump’s economy is still booming. But his opponents here and abroad are counting on a recession to derail him.
They hope that either the good times can’t last forever or that Trump’s trade war with China will scare investors and businesspeople into retrenchment. Or perhaps massive annual deficits and staggering debt will finally catch up to a financially reckless government.
[…]
See Also:
(1) America’s demolition politics smashes the world
(2) The forgotten factor in Donald Trump’s quest to buy Greenland — rare-earth elements
(3) U.S. Clears Sale of F-16 Jets to Taiwan
(4) William Barr tries to tamp down Epstein suicide conspiracy theories
(5) A Michigan Court Case Shows the Right of Armed Self-Defense Is Broader Than You Might Think
Greg Gutfeld provides a humorous rebuttal to the notion that Donald Trump should rein in his “babbling mouth”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYf1kWq1c08
“What Could Sink Trump’s Chances in 2020?” asks the author of the article Victor Davis Hanson.
IMO, it is Trump’s incessant stream of consciousness speculations in front of an inimical press.
Is it really necessary to speculate about lowering payroll taxes and indexing capital gains, only to backtrack the following day?
Is it reassuring to the general public to hear their president refer to Federal Reserve Chair Powell, whom he appointed, as an enemy?
Is it good trade strategy to keep slapping higher tariffs on China in the hope that the Chinese will humbly capitulate to his demands, justified though they may be? BTW, on dealing with the Chinese, IMO the West should threaten a boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics unless nationals like Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor are released from detainment without probable cause.
And is it really necessary for the president to keep praising himself for undertaking some difficult positions? Is referring to himself as “the Chosen One” in dealing with issues that his predecessors failed to address a vote winning strategy? Yes, true, other politicians feign humility but maybe Trump could cut down the self-congratulatory comments.
Trump may be becoming his own worst enemy. A bit more circumspection and less brashness might help.
“He needs to give his big mouth a rest and let his actions speak for him.”
Right on. These two quotes about talkative people from https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/talkative also apply:
“You can not control the thought, but you can control the tongue.”
“Busy hands are better than babbling mouth.”
― Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words