China’s pork prices will reach a record level by the fourth quarter of 2019 due to the impact of African swine fever on domestic production, even as imports continue to surge, according to a Rabobank report.
Pork prices rose by nearly 30 per cent in June compared with a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with the spread of African swine fever showing no sign of abating, causing domestic production to plunge.
“China’s pork and hog prices are likely to break the previous record high in 2016 by the fourth quarter,” said Pan Chenjun, the report’s author and a senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank.
Prices for other meats, including chicken, are also expected to rise substantially, putting further pressure on the discretionary spending of Chinese consumers.
Pan forecasts that the wholesale price for pork will reach 30 yuan (US$4.36) per kilogram, while hogs will reach 22 yuan. Wholesale prices for pork in June stood at 21.59 yuan a kilogram.
Pork prices hit record levels three years ago after farmers held back pigs from slaughter to rebuild herds after widespread culling in 2014 when prices were low.
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If China has a pork problem, the WE will soon have one as well. The Chinese will buy up as much as possible on the international markets … and likely via some back-door deals with countries to get more (don’t expect Canada in that list … thanks, Justin!). Add to this the late spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere (especially the US and China), the flooding of prime agricultural land to the point where it’s not likely that neither the US or China will meet their domestic demand for corn (and they’re the worlds’ main exporters) … 2020 is shaping up to be a VERY expensive year for food.