July 18, 2024
The latest 338Canada projection
This week’s projection shows no favourite, but the trend is clear: the Conservatives’ advantage has faded into the distance .
This week’s projection shows no favourite, but the trend is clear: the Conservatives’ advantage has faded into the distance.

Polling firms across Canada were once again busy last week measuring the mood of Canadians towards the up-coming general federal election. Here is a short recap of these new pieces of data:

  • The Vancouver-based firm Research Co. released its first federal horse race poll of the year, and has the Liberal Party at 34 per cent nationally—ahead by a thin 3-point margin over the Conservatives. According to Research Co., the Liberals are leading in the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. The Conservatives remain in first place in the Prairies and Alberta. Both parties are statistically tied in Ontario and B.C. You can find Research Co.’s report here.
  • Abacus Data also published its latest findings and has a tie for the Liberals and Conservatives at 32 per cent apiece. Abacus also presented results of Canadians’ impressions of federal leaders and of some provincial premiers (such as Ford, Legault, and Kenney). Additionally, Abacus polled Canadian on their impressions of American President Donald Trump. Here’s Abacus Data’s full report.
  • On Friday, a new poll from Léger/The Canadian Press also showed the race tightening between the two main parties. Although Léger still has the CPC ahead nationally 36 to 33, the CPC lead over the Liberals went from 9 points in early June to only 3 points in July. This change in voting intentions is most due to the Ontario numbers: in June, Léger had measured a 10-point lead for the Conservatives in the province; the latest poll has the parties tied at 36 per cent apiece. Also of note: Léger measures the NDP at only 11 per cent nationally, one point below the Greens. Here is Léger’s report.
  • Finally, we add to the model a Mainstreet/iPolitics riding poll of Whitby, a swing district located in the 905 region of Ontario, which has the Conservatives at 41 per cent of decided voters, and the Liberals at 40 per cent. Considering the poll’s margin of error of ±4 per cent, this result should be considered a statistical tie.

Here are the publicly available federal polls published in July compared to the 338Canada’s weighted poll averages for the Liberals and Conservatives:

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See Also:

(1) Does journalistic ‘fact-checking’ work? That depends what you mean by ‘work’

(2) Internal documents challenge Via Rail’s business case for extending new rail line to Quebec City

(3) Canada Infrastructure Bank to work with Via Rail on high-frequency passenger rail plan

(4) The glaring omission on the Supreme Court

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