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OTTAWA — The U.S. House of Representatives began its summer break today leaving the ratification of the new North American trade deal hanging, rekindling angst that a frustrated President Donald Trump will blow up the existing pact.
Trade experts in Canada and the U.S. are divided on whether Trump may be driven to invoke the six-month notice period to withdraw from the current North American Free Trade Agreement — a threat he repeatedly made during the tense renegotiation of the pact that he pushed on Canada and Mexico.
Mexico is the only country to give full legal approval to the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, when its Congress recently ratified the deal.
But Canada is waiting to see what the U.S. Congress will do and with the Democrats controlling the lower House, no ratification bill was tabled there before lawmakers broke for their five-week summer recess on Friday — a scenario Trump and his cabinet worked hard to avoid.
The Democrats want changes to the USMCA’s provisions on labour, environment, patent protection for drugs and enforcement, and have by all accounts working hard with Trump’s trade czar Robert Lighthizer to move forward.
But they haven’t reached an agreement that would persuade the Democrats to bring a bill forward in the House.
That makes it all but certain that U.S. lawmakers won’t be in a position to take even the most tentative steps forward on the deal before the start of Canada’s federal election campaign, which is set to begin by mid-September at the latest.
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