Battleground Ontario Is Tightening

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We add three new polls to the 338Canada federal model this week, and this fresh data appears to indicate that the Liberals may be gaining in the crucial battleground of Ontario, where 121 electoral districts, more than a third of Canada’s federal districts, are located:

• The Nanos Weekly Tracker now has the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie in Canada with 33 per cent apiece;
• Forum Research published its June poll showing the Conservatives ahead by six points nationally, but trailing by four points in Ontario;
• Last Friday, EKOS Research President Frank Graves tweeted his latest results: a three-day tracker that measured the CPC ahead nationally by two points (a lead smaller than the poll’s margin of error), but trailing the Liberals by as much as seven points in Ontario. The poll’s full report has not yet been made available, but I obtained the tables with full regional results including weighted/unweighted sample sizes (courtesy of Mr. Graves), which is why EKOS’ new numbers are included in this update.

The complete list of federal polls is available on this page. Here is the 338Canada/Maclean’s Federal Projection Update for June 30, 2019.

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See Also:

(1) Doug Ford: A year of living stupidly