The most remarkable recent trend in Canadian politics has been the rise of the Greens. Since the last election, the party had been locked in at its usual six per cent in the polls, give or take a half a percentage point — until this year, when it suddenly began to take off. Recent polls put it at 11 or 12 points, within spitting distance of the NDP.
The newfound public interest in the Greens has translated into multiple seats in several provincial elections — British Columbia in 2017, New Brunswick in 2018, P.E.I. in 2019 — as well as the recent federal byelection in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, adding to the impression of momentum.
Much of the party’s gains would appear to be at the expense of the Liberals, reflecting increasing public disenchantment with the prime minister, personally, as well as with the Liberals’ handling of energy and environmental issues. But it is no less significant that left-leaning voters, as they peel away from the Grits, are looking past the NDP, in favour of their more absolutist rivals.
The same trend is observable elsewhere, as climate change increasingly displaces the old politics of class and even the new politics of identity as the driving issue on the left. The Greens were among the major winners in the recent European Union elections — with 69 seats, they are now the fourth-largest bloc in the European Parliament — while candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination compete to outdo each other with the radicalism of their environmental plans.
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