As I write, the richest and most powerful country on Earth is shutting down cities, states, and large portions of its economy to stop the spread of a deadly contagion. The potential economic, political, social, and security costs are incalculable. The problem is made worse because hindsight bias allows us to see that current conditions might have been avoided. Instead, as happens so often in history, wishful thinking and self-deception led to dire consequences.
“Quite a few years ago,” wrote Roberta Wohlstetter in the autumn 1979 issue of The Washington Quarterly, “I looked into why we were surprised at Pearl Harbor.” Part of the difficulty of anticipating such events, she said in “The Pleasures of Self-Deception,” is in separating meaningful signals from background noise. Another part is self-deception. “What has interested me from the beginning but more so in recent times,” Wohlstetter continued, “is the role the victim often plays in deceiving himself. This seems especially important in cases that occur between wars, where the critical time to recognize what an adversary is up to may take years, and where perceptions may be shaped by extended negotiations, past, present, and future, on the assumed common interests of the opposing sides. These are the slow Pearl Harbors, so to speak.”
Wohlstetter offered three examples: The British resisted the conclusion that Hitler meant to rearm Germany; the United States avoided the recognition that the Soviets intended to outpace the American nuclear deterrent; and the Western powers refused to acknowledge India’s nuclear ambitions. “In all of these errors persisting over a long period of time in the face of increasing and sometimes rather bald contrary evidence, cherished beliefs, and comforting assumptions about the good faith and common interest of a potential adversary play a very large role. The victims in such cases may be the principal deceivers.”
Viruses lack the presumed rationality and intentionality of human adversaries. But Wohlstetter’s framework still helps clarify the chain of events that has placed the United States in such an unprecedented strategic situation.
In this case, there is not one slow Pearl Harbor. There are two.
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See Also:
(1) Why On Earth Should Anyone Believe China’s Coronavirus Statistics?
(2) China Is Legally Responsible for COVID-19 Damage and Claims Could Be in the Trillions
(3) On ‘The Cure Is Worse Than the Disease’
(4) The Economic Disaster Media And Washington Haven’t Begun To Notice
(5) The New Spanish Inquisition
Watch:
Bullshit. No doubt the rank and file of the world were taken by suprise but the leadership was not.
FDR knew it was coming. The aircraft carriers were kept out at sea and lives at Pearl Harbor were sacrificed.
Then as now is the question who knew what and when. For the majority, this is the biggest event in our lives, to date. The event is so greal, the economic impact so profound, the consequences so vast it is indeed the ending of an era.
As always, there is that tiny minority who are going to profit beyond imagination. And guess what, it ain’t us.
https://youtu.be/H-PSCqhkWhg